Could Virginia become a “swing state” in the upcoming presidential election?

Stephen J. Farnsworth, longtime professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington (UMW) in Fredericksburg, who is also director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies (C4L&MS), says “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”

Farnsworth’s remarks came after a new statewide survey from the Center showed Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) are locked in a tight presidential contest in Virginia.

According to a C4L&MS news release, Harris has the support of 47 percent of 756 likely Virginia voters, with 46 percent favoring Trump in the survey. One thousand adults were surveyed Sept. 3-9 for C4L&MS by Research America Inc.  Several third party and independent candidates received a total of four percent support in the poll, while the remaining likely voters said they were undecided, a news release said.

In a question that asked likely voters only about the major party nominees, the results also remained within the margin of error: 48 percent favored Harris and 46 percent preferred Trump.

Among all survey respondents, the two major party nominees were tied at 44 percent each. Roughly five percent said they were undecided, with the remainder saying they support a third-party or independent candidate or were not planning to vote.

“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said Farnsworth,  “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year,” he added.

The survey, which concluded just before the presidential debate on Sept. 10, showed that Virginians were greatly concerned with a range of policy issues: 20 percent said the economy and jobs were the top concern, 19 percent said inflation, 19 percent said threats to democracy, 13 percent said immigration and five percent said abortion. According to the news release, Republicans in the survey focused more on economic matters, while Democrats were more likely to be concerned about threats to democracy and abortion.

“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the Commonwealth,” Farnsworth said. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”